Modelling food supply networks

Abstract

The core objective of VALUMICS project www.valumics.eu is to develop approaches and tools to analyse the structure, dynamics, resilience and impact of food chains on food security, economic development and the environment. This article presents the work done by the H2020 VALUMICS project during its first year on system dynamics causality-based modelling framework analysis, which has been facilitated through iterative workshops (WS) and group model building. The framework consists of flow charts and causal loop diagrams (CLDs) for supply, value-, and decision- chains for several food supply chains and systems. These are salmon to fillets; beef cattle to steak; dairy cows to milk; wheat to bread and tomatoes to canned tomatoes. The framework will now be further refined with stakeholders from the food value chains, so as to form a consensus vision of the overall system. The outcome will be the basis for the next step in the modelling phase which will focus on parametrisation and operationalising decision rules for the model, in particular with a focus on fairness and distribution of value added in the food supply chain from farmer to the consumers. This work will integrate the learning from the analysis performed in the project in the case studies and includes work on assessment of environmental and social dimension of food chains by life cycle assessment, assessment of transportation, logistics, risk and resilience. A review of policy and governance intervention done by VALUMICS partners will also provide a basis for evaluating governance and power structure in food chains linked to economic studies on food chain organisations, price formation, persistence of supply chain relations, assessment of economies of scale and technical innovations, and a statistical analysis of agribusiness profitability.