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On the long-term sustainability of copper, zinc and lead supply, using a system dynamics model

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dc.contributor Háskóli Íslands
dc.contributor University of Iceland
dc.contributor.author Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik
dc.contributor.author Olafsdottir, Anna
dc.contributor.author Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala
dc.date.accessioned 2020-02-10T12:52:19Z
dc.date.available 2020-02-10T12:52:19Z
dc.date.issued 2019-12
dc.identifier.citation Sverdrup, H. U., Olafsdottir, A. H., & Ragnarsdottir, K. V. (2019). On the long-term sustainability of copper, zinc and lead supply, using a system dynamics model. Resources, Conservation & Recycling: X, 4, 100007. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcrx.2019.100007
dc.identifier.issn 2590-289X
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1521
dc.description Publisher's version (útgefin grein).
dc.description.abstract The long-term supply sustainability of copper, zinc and lead was assessed. Copper will not run into physcal scarcity in the future, but increased demand and decreased resource quality will cause significant price increases. The copper price is suggested to increase significantly in the coming decades. A similar situation applies for zinc and lead with soft scarcity and increased prices for zinc. The total supply of copper reaches a maximum 2030–2045, zinc 2030–2050 and lead 2025-2030. The copper supply per person and year and decline after 2130, and the copper stock-in-use reaches a maximum in 2050 and decline afterwards. The zinc supply per person per year reach a maximum in 2100 and decline after 2100, and the zinc stock-in use shows a similar pattern. The lead supply per person reach a plateau in 1985, and decline after 2070, whereas the lead stock-in-use reach a plateau in 2080 and decline after 2100. For copper, zinc and lead, scarcity will mainly be manifested as increased metal price, with feedbacks on demand. The predicted price increase will cause recycling to increase in the future. The supply situation for copper would be much improved if the recycling of copper could be strongly promoted through policy means, as well as it would work well to limit the price increases predicted under business-as-usual. Considering the importance of these metals for society, it is essential to set adequate policies for resource efficiency and resource conservation for society.
dc.description.sponsorship This study contributed to the SimRess project (Models, potential andlong-term scenarios for resource efficiency),funded by the GermanFederal Ministry for Environment and the German EnvironmentalProtection Agency (FKZ 3712 93 102). Dr. Ullrich Lorenz is projectofficer at the German Environmental Protection Agency (UBA). Onbehalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is noconflict of interest.
dc.format.extent 100007
dc.language.iso en
dc.publisher Elsevier BV
dc.relation.ispartofseries Resources, Conservation & Recycling: X;4
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject Copper
dc.subject Dynamic modelling
dc.subject Lead
dc.subject Market price
dc.subject Mining
dc.subject Recycling
dc.subject Sustainability
dc.subject WORLD7 scarcity
dc.subject Zinc
dc.subject Sink
dc.subject Endurvinnsla
dc.subject Sjálfbærni
dc.subject Kopar
dc.subject Blý
dc.title On the long-term sustainability of copper, zinc and lead supply, using a system dynamics model
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dcterms.license This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/)
dc.description.version Peer Reviewed
dc.identifier.journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling: X
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.rcrx.2019.100007
dc.contributor.department Iðnaðarverkfræði-, vélaverkfræði- og tölvunarfræðideild (HÍ)
dc.contributor.department Faculty of Industrial Eng., Mechanical Eng. and Computer Science (UI)
dc.contributor.department Jarðvísindastofnun (HÍ)
dc.contributor.department Institute of Earth Sciences (UI)
dc.contributor.school School of Engineering and Natural Sciences (UI)
dc.contributor.school Verkfræði- og náttúruvísindasvið (HÍ)

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