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On the long-term sustainability of copper, zinc and lead supply, using a system dynamics model

On the long-term sustainability of copper, zinc and lead supply, using a system dynamics model


Title: On the long-term sustainability of copper, zinc and lead supply, using a system dynamics model
Author: Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik   orcid.org/0000-0001-6935-8367
Olafsdottir, Anna   orcid.org/0000-0002-5138-2366
Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala   orcid.org/0000-0001-6958-0734
Date: 2019-12
Language: English
Scope: 100007
University/Institute: Háskóli Íslands
University of Iceland
School: School of Engineering and Natural Sciences (UI)
Verkfræði- og náttúruvísindasvið (HÍ)
Department: Iðnaðarverkfræði-, vélaverkfræði- og tölvunarfræðideild (HÍ)
Faculty of Industrial Eng., Mechanical Eng. and Computer Science (UI)
Jarðvísindastofnun (HÍ)
Institute of Earth Sciences (UI)
Series: Resources, Conservation & Recycling: X;4
ISSN: 2590-289X
DOI: 10.1016/j.rcrx.2019.100007
Subject: Copper; Dynamic modelling; Lead; Market price; Mining; Recycling; Sustainability; WORLD7 scarcity; Zinc; Sink; Endurvinnsla; Sjálfbærni; Kopar; Blý
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1521

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Citation:

Sverdrup, H. U., Olafsdottir, A. H., & Ragnarsdottir, K. V. (2019). On the long-term sustainability of copper, zinc and lead supply, using a system dynamics model. Resources, Conservation & Recycling: X, 4, 100007. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcrx.2019.100007

Abstract:

The long-term supply sustainability of copper, zinc and lead was assessed. Copper will not run into physcal scarcity in the future, but increased demand and decreased resource quality will cause significant price increases. The copper price is suggested to increase significantly in the coming decades. A similar situation applies for zinc and lead with soft scarcity and increased prices for zinc. The total supply of copper reaches a maximum 2030–2045, zinc 2030–2050 and lead 2025-2030. The copper supply per person and year and decline after 2130, and the copper stock-in-use reaches a maximum in 2050 and decline afterwards. The zinc supply per person per year reach a maximum in 2100 and decline after 2100, and the zinc stock-in use shows a similar pattern. The lead supply per person reach a plateau in 1985, and decline after 2070, whereas the lead stock-in-use reach a plateau in 2080 and decline after 2100. For copper, zinc and lead, scarcity will mainly be manifested as increased metal price, with feedbacks on demand. The predicted price increase will cause recycling to increase in the future. The supply situation for copper would be much improved if the recycling of copper could be strongly promoted through policy means, as well as it would work well to limit the price increases predicted under business-as-usual. Considering the importance of these metals for society, it is essential to set adequate policies for resource efficiency and resource conservation for society.

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Publisher's version (útgefin grein).

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This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/)

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