dc.contributor |
Háskóli Íslands |
dc.contributor |
University of Iceland |
dc.contributor.author |
Nedelciu, Claudiu |
dc.contributor.author |
Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala |
dc.contributor.author |
Schlyter, Peter |
dc.contributor.author |
Stjernquist, Ingrid |
dc.date.accessioned |
2020-11-16T09:44:13Z |
dc.date.available |
2020-11-16T09:44:13Z |
dc.date.issued |
2020-09 |
dc.identifier.citation |
Nedelciu, C. E., et al. (2020). "Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050." Global Food Security 26: 100426. |
dc.identifier.issn |
2211-9124 |
dc.identifier.uri |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/2206 |
dc.description |
Publisher's version (útgefin grein) |
dc.description.abstract |
Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades. |
dc.description.sponsorship |
The authors are thankful to Dr. Salim Belyazid at the Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, for his invaluable insights into the conceptualization of this model. This article is part of Adaptation to a new economic reality (AdaptEconII) Marie Curie Innovative Training Network, funded by the European Commission (H2020-MSCA ITN-2015, Grant No. 675153 ). The European Commission support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents, which reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. This work was also supported by Stockholm University [Carl Mannerfelt Fond stipend 2020] and the Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography [SSAG scholarship 2020]. |
dc.format.extent |
100426 |
dc.language.iso |
en |
dc.publisher |
Elsevier BV |
dc.relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/675153 |
dc.relation.ispartofseries |
Global Food Security;26 |
dc.rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
dc.subject |
Fertilizers |
dc.subject |
Food security |
dc.subject |
Phosphorus |
dc.subject |
Population growth |
dc.subject |
Regional |
dc.subject |
System dynamics modelling |
dc.subject |
Fæðuöryggi |
dc.subject |
Fosfór |
dc.subject |
Fólksfjölgun |
dc.subject |
Áburður |
dc.title |
Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050 |
dc.type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dcterms.license |
This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) |
dc.description.version |
Peer Reviewed |
dc.identifier.journal |
Global Food Security |
dc.identifier.doi |
10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426 |
dc.relation.url |
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912420300808?via%3Dihub |
dc.contributor.department |
Jarðvísindadeild (HÍ) |
dc.contributor.department |
Faculty of Earth Sciences (UI) |
dc.contributor.school |
Verkfræði- og náttúruvísindasvið (HÍ) |
dc.contributor.school |
School of Engineering and Natural Sciences (UI) |