Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050

Nedelciu, Claudiu; Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala; Schlyter, Peter; Stjernquist, Ingrid

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dc.contributor	Háskóli Íslands
dc.contributor	University of Iceland
dc.contributor.author	orcid.org/0000-0003-0884-0656 Nedelciu, Claudiu
dc.contributor.author	orcid.org/0000-0001-6958-0734 Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala
dc.contributor.author	Schlyter, Peter
dc.contributor.author	Stjernquist, Ingrid
dc.date.accessioned	2020-11-16T09:44:13Z
dc.date.available	2020-11-16T09:44:13Z
dc.date.issued	2020-09
dc.identifier.citation	Nedelciu, C. E., et al. (2020). "Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050." Global Food Security 26: 100426.
dc.identifier.issn	2211-9124
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/2206
dc.description	Publisher's version (útgefin grein)
dc.description.abstract	Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.
dc.description.sponsorship	The authors are thankful to Dr. Salim Belyazid at the Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, for his invaluable insights into the conceptualization of this model. This article is part of Adaptation to a new economic reality (AdaptEconII) Marie Curie Innovative Training Network, funded by the European Commission (H2020-MSCA ITN-2015, Grant No. 675153 ). The European Commission support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents, which reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. This work was also supported by Stockholm University [Carl Mannerfelt Fond stipend 2020] and the Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography [SSAG scholarship 2020].
dc.format.extent	100426
dc.language.iso	en
dc.publisher	Elsevier BV
dc.relation	info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/675153
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Global Food Security;26
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject	Fertilizers
dc.subject	Food security
dc.subject	Phosphorus
dc.subject	Population growth
dc.subject	Regional
dc.subject	System dynamics modelling
dc.subject	Fæðuöryggi
dc.subject	Fosfór
dc.subject	Fólksfjölgun
dc.subject	Áburður
dc.title	Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dcterms.license	This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
dc.description.version	Peer Reviewed
dc.identifier.journal	Global Food Security
dc.identifier.doi	10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426
dc.relation.url	https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912420300808?via%3Dihub
dc.contributor.department	Jarðvísindadeild (HÍ)
dc.contributor.department	Faculty of Earth Sciences (UI)
dc.contributor.school	Verkfræði- og náttúruvísindasvið (HÍ)
dc.contributor.school	School of Engineering and Natural Sciences (UI)