Harmonic Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Pattern of Thunderstorms in Iran (1961–2010)

Abstract

The current study aimed at investigating cycles and the spatial autocorrelation pattern of anomalies of thunderstorms in Iran during different periods from 1961 to 2010. In this analysis, 50-year periods (1961–2010) of thunderstorm codes have been collected from 283 synoptic stations of Meteorological Organization of Iran. The study period has been divided into five different decades (1961–1970, 1971–1980, 1981–1990, 1991–2000, and 2001–2010). Spectral analysis and Moran’s I were used to analyze cycles and the spatial autocorrelation pattern, respectively. Furthermore, in order to conduct the calculations, programming facilities of MATLAB have been explored. Finally, Surfer and GIS were employed to come up with the graphical depiction of the maps. The results showed that the maximum of positive anomalies mainly occurred in the northwestern and western parts of Iran due to their special topography, during all the five studied periods. On the other hand, the minimum of negative anomalies took place in central regions of the country because of lack of appropriate conditions (e.g., enough humidity). Moran’s I spatial analysis further confirmed these findings as Moran’s I depicts the positive and negative spatial autocorrelation patterns in line with negative and positive anomalies, respectively. However, in recent decades, this pattern has experienced a declining trend, especially in southern areas of Iran. The results of harmonic analysis indicated that mainly short-term and midterm cycles dominated Iran’s thunderstorms.