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Winter Weather Anomalies and Individual Destination Choice

Winter Weather Anomalies and Individual Destination Choice

Title: Winter Weather Anomalies and Individual Destination Choice
Author: Falk, Martin
Hagsten, Eva
Date: 2018-07-26
Language: English
Scope: 2630
University/Institute: Háskóli Íslands
University of Iceland
School: Félagsvísindasvið (HÍ)
School of Social Sciences (UI)
Series: Sustainability;10(8)
ISSN: 2071-1050
DOI: 10.3390/su10082630
Subject: Travel decision; Winter destinations; Abnormal weather; Leisure travel survey; Multinomial Logit model; Ferðalög; Vetrarferðir; Veðurfar; Kannanir
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1246

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Falk M, Hagsten E. Winter Weather Anomalies and Individual Destination Choice. Sustainability. 2018; 10(8):2630. doi:10.3390/su10082630


Recently, several winter seasons in the European Alps have been unexpectedly warm. In the Austrian mountains, December 2015 was the warmest since weather records began, with a temperature deviation of +6.6 °C compared to the long-term average. By use of data on 6200 individual trips from the Austrian travel survey, a multinomial Logit model is employed to estimate if weather anomalies affect the choice of winter trips. A substitution for more distant trips may create additional environmental burdens, given that they require longer travels or alternative transportation modes. Estimation results reveal that the choice of a mountain destination is not yet affected by extreme winter weather conditions. The result is valid for December 2015, as well as for the total winter season 2015/2016. However, December 2015 and 2016 exhibit a separate development with a significant increase in the likelihood of trips to non-mountains in Europe (mostly city breaks), although no traces of a direct substitution effect can be found. Younger and older people, as well as women, are less likely to go on a winter trip to the mountains. Residents with a tertiary degree and students are more interested in this, as well as large travel groups.


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