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Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland

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dc.contributor Háskóli Íslands
dc.contributor University of Iceland
dc.contributor.author Eythorsson, Darri
dc.contributor.author Gardarsson, Sigurdur
dc.contributor.author Gunnarsson, Andri
dc.contributor.author Hrafnkelsson, Birgir
dc.date.accessioned 2018-11-21T15:46:24Z
dc.date.available 2018-11-21T15:46:24Z
dc.date.issued 2018-03-19
dc.identifier.citation Eythorsson, D., Gardarsson, S. M., Gunnarsson, A., & Hrafnkelsson, B. (2018). Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland. Journal of Glaciology, 64(244), 311-320. doi:10.1017/jog.2018.22
dc.identifier.issn 0022-1430
dc.identifier.issn 1727-5652 (e-ISSN)
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/917
dc.description Publisher's version (útgefin grein)
dc.description.abstract Forecasting of glacier mass balance is important for optimal management of hydrological resources, especially where glacial meltwater constitutes a significant portion of stream flow, as is the case for many rivers in Iceland. In this study, a method was developed and applied to forecast the summer mass balance of Brúarjökull glacier in southeast Iceland. In the present study, many variables measured in the basin were evaluated, including glaciological snow accumulation data, various climate indices and meteorological measurements including temperature, humidity and radiation. The most relevant single predictor variables were selected using correlation analysis. The selected variables were used to define a set of potential multivariate linear regression models that were optimized by selecting an ensemble of plausible models showing good fit to calibration data. A mass-balance estimate was calculated as a uniform average across ensemble predictions. The method was evaluated using fivefold cross-validation and the statistical metrics Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, the ratio of the root mean square error to the std dev. and percent bias. The results showed that the model produces satisfactory predictions when forced with initial condition data available at the beginning of the summer melt season, between 15 June and 1 July, whereas less reliable predictions are produced for longer lead times.
dc.description.sponsorship We thank the University of Iceland Research Fund which is supporting the first author. The project was also supported by the Energy Research Fund of the National Energy Company, Landsvirkjun by grants no. MEI-03-2015 and DOK-02-2017
dc.format.extent 311-320
dc.language.iso en
dc.publisher Cambridge University Press (CUP)
dc.relation.ispartofseries Journal of Glaciology;64(244)
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject Glacier mass balance
dc.subject Glacier modelling
dc.subject Ice and climate
dc.subject Melt-surface
dc.subject Jöklafræði
dc.subject Bráðnun (jöklafræði)
dc.subject Líkindafræði
dc.subject Spálíkön
dc.title Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dcterms.license This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
dc.description.version Peer Reviewed
dc.identifier.journal Journal of Glaciology
dc.identifier.doi 10.1017/jog.2018.22
dc.relation.url https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143018000229
dc.contributor.department Umhverfis- og byggingarverkfræðideild (HÍ)
dc.contributor.department Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering (UI)
dc.contributor.department Raunvísindadeild (HÍ)
dc.contributor.department Faculty of Physical Sciences (UI)
dc.contributor.school Verkfræði- og náttúruvísindasvið (HÍ)
dc.contributor.school School of Engineering and Natural Sciences (UI)

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