Optimization-based modeling of Kenya’s energy system for pathways towards access to secure, affordable, and sustainable energy services

Abstract

Global climate change is one of the most significant challenges that need urgent action in this century. Energy production and consumption, particularly for heat and electricity generation, account for the highest GHG emissions from anthropogenic activities. The world energy demand is projected to increase as the population grows and efforts double to bridge the demand-supply gap in countries yet to achieve universal access to modern energy services. Currently, out of the 770 million people who lack access to electricity worldwide, 580 million live in Africa, predominantly in the Sub-Saharan Africa region. Using advanced energy planning tools to guide national energy objectives and decisions will be critical in addressing energy poverty while shifting to low-carbon fuels in Sub-Saharan Africa. Advanced energy planning tools have a detailed technological representation, account for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and cost, and assess low-carbon policies optimally. This work aims to develop a quantitative energy system planning model for Kenya to evaluate pathways towards access to secure, affordable, and sustainable energy services for the 2020 to 2050 period. This thesis is composed of three journal articles that describe the outcome of this work. The first article reviews the existing integrated energy modeling studies done for the Sub-Saharan Africa region at a country or regional level. The reviewed studies show that the models, based on different mathematical approaches and assumptions, inadequately addressed some fundamental energy themes, such as low-carbon policies and energy cost. It is recommended that the SSA countries develop national-scale energy planning models using advanced planning tools, which could be expanded into a regional model. The second article develops a national-scale energy model for Kenya using the advanced bottom-up energy optimization Integrated MARAKAL-EFOM (TIMES) framework. Using the developed Kenya-TIMES model, the study assesses the environmental and techno-economic assessment of power system expansion for three projected demand levels for Kenya for the 2020 to 2045 period. The results indicate that the government will not meet its nationally determined contribution (NDC) GHG reduction targets in the vision demand scenario without implementing low-carbon policies. The third article develops the Kenya-TIMES model further to assess the low-carbon development strategies for Sub-Saharan Africa, using the case of Kenya. This study evaluates the implication of the carbon tax, renewable energy subsidy, renewable portfolio standards, and a hybrid of renewable subsidy and carbon tax policy instruments on Kenya’s power generation expansion for 2020 to 2050 under vision demand level. The GHG emissions are evaluated against Kenya’s NDC emission reduction targets. The results indicate the evaluated low-carbon policy instruments could help achieve emission cuts below the government’s NDC targets. Overall, this work sets a benchmark for developing a national-scale energy planning model using advanced energy planning tools and using it to guide the national energy objectives and decisions that Sub-Saharan Africa countries could adopt.