Fraud Detection of Bulk Cargo Theft in Port Using Bayesian Network Models

Abstract

The fraud detection of cargo theft has been a serious issue in ports for a long time. Traditional research in detecting theft risk is expert- and survey-based, which is not optimal for proactive prediction. As we move into a pervasive and ubiquitous paradigm, the implications of external environment and system behavior are continuously captured as multi-source data. Therefore, we propose a novel data-driven approach for formulating predictive models for detecting bulk cargo theft in ports. More specifically, we apply various feature-ranking methods and classification algorithms for selecting an effective feature set of relevant risk elements. Then, implicit Bayesian networks are derived with the features to graphically present the relationship with the risk elements of fraud. Thus, various binary classifiers are compared to derive a suitable predictive model, and Bayesian network performs best overall. The resulting Bayesian networks are then comparatively analyzed based on the outcomes of model validation and testing, as well as essential domain knowledge. The experimental results show that predictive models are effective, with both accuracy and recall values greater than 0.8. These predictive models are not only useful for understanding the dependency between relevant risk elements, but also for supporting the strategy optimization of risk management.