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Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population

Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population


Title: Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population
Author: Alves, Jose   orcid.org/0000-0001-7182-0936
Gunnarsson, Tomas Gretar   orcid.org/0000-0001-7692-0637
Sutherland, William J.
Potts, Peter M.
Gill, J. A.
Date: 2019-02-14
Language: English
Scope: 2365-2375
University/Institute: Háskóli Íslands
University of Iceland
Department: Rannsóknasetur Suðurlandi (HÍ)
Research Centre in South Iceland (UI)
Series: Ecology and Evolution;9(5)
ISSN: 2045-7758
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4746
Subject: Climate change; Population dynamics; Species distribution; Temperature; Waders; Loftslagsbreytingar; Vaðfuglar; Fuglafar
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1800

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Citation:

Alves, JA, Gunnarsson, TG, Sutherland, WJ, Potts, PM, Gill, JA. Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population. Ecol Evol. 2019; 9: 2365– 2375. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4746

Abstract:

Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10-fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate-driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black-tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population-wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fueled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature-mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change.

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This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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