Titill: | Adolescent migration intentions and population change: A 20-year follow-up of Icelandic communities |
Höfundur: | |
Útgáfa: | 2014-04-27 |
Tungumál: | Enska |
Umfang: | 500-515 |
Háskóli/Stofnun: | Háskólinn á Akureyri University of Akureyri |
Svið: | Hug- og félagsvísindasvið (HA) School of Humanities and Social Sciences (UA) |
Deild: | Félagsvísindadeild (HA) Faculty of Social Sciences (UA) |
Birtist í: | Sociologia Ruralis;54(4) |
ISSN: | 0038-0199 1467-9523 (eISSN) |
DOI: | 10.1111/soru.12050 |
Efnisorð: | Rural; Adolescent; Migration; Dreifbýli; Unglingar; Búferlaflutningar |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1112 |
Tilvitnun:Bjarnason, T. (2014). Adolescent migration intentions and population change: A 20-year follow-up of Icelandic communities. Sociologia Ruralis, 54(4), 500-515. doi:10.1111/soru.12050
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Útdráttur:Prior research has demonstrated that migration intentions are a moderate to
strong predictor of individual-level migration across a wide range of countries,
but their value for predicting community-level population change remains
unclear. Analyses of census data 1972–2012 and a population survey of
Icelandic adolescents in 1992 show that each percentage point difference in
adolescent migration intentions is associated with 1.36 per cent change in the
surveyed cohort and 1.25 per cent change in the total population over a twenty
year period. Roughly half of the predictive value of migration intentions can be
attributed to remoteness and long-term population change prior to the survey.
On average, communities only experienced long-term population decline when
more than half the adolescent population had intended to leave, but lower levels
of adolescent migration intentions are associated with changes in the age
composition. These results strongly suggest that adolescent migration intentions
signal future population development.
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Athugasemdir:© 2014 The Author. Sociologia Ruralis © 2014 European Society for Rural Sociology.
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