Migration intentions of rural youth in Iceland: Can a large-scale development project stem the tide of out-migration?

Abstract

Rural communities in Iceland have been profoundly affected by natural resource management policies. As part of a regional development strategy, a large aluminum smelter and 650-megawatt hydroelectric plant were built in the sparsely populated Eastfjords region. This project was aimed at revitalizing the region and creating employment, enabling youth to stay in their home communities. Using surveys from 1992 through 2007, changes in migration expectations are compared among Eastfjords, equally rural Westfjords far from the project, and the urban capital region. The majority of rural youth want to out-migrate and the project had no discernable effect on such intentions. Regardless of employment opportunities, rural youth increasingly want to move to urban areas or abroad. Gender differences disappeared over time as "female flight" became "youth flight." Findings suggest large-scale natural resource projects alone are not sufficient, and more comprehensive rural development policies are needed to stem the tide of rural youth out-migration.