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When war moves oil : Energy dependence and global equity responses to the 2026 Iran conflict
(2026-07-27) Kaczmarek, Tomasz; Demir, Ender; Rouatbi, Wael; Zaremba, Adam; Department of Business and Economics
We provide, to the best of our knowledge, the first systematic cross-country analysis of global equity market reactions to the U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran on February 28, 2026, using daily returns from 67 countries. Stock prices declined materially, signaling a repricing of geopolitical risk. Cross-country heterogeneity reflects energy exposure: fuel exporters experienced smaller losses, while importers suffered larger declines. Nuclear capacity was associated with smaller losses, consistent with diversification benefits. Standard macroeconomic and geopolitical variables have limited explanatory power. Overall, the results suggest that energy markets are a central transmission channel for geopolitical shocks and point to the role of energy independence in financial resilience.
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Evaluating the quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published in behaviour analysis journals : An umbrella review
(2026-06-26) May, Richard; Campbell, Olivia; Apanasionok, Magda; Molina, Josh; Seel, Christopher; Totsika, Vaso; McTiernan, Aoife; Tennyson, Alan; Grindle, Corinna; Dymond, Simon; Department of Psychology
High-quality systematic reviews and meta-analyses are essential for translating evidence into practice. We conducted an umbrella review to evaluate the methodological quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published in the field of behaviour analysis up to and including 2023. Eligible studies were identified through targeted searches of seven behaviour analysis journals using APA PsycINFO. Quality was assessed using the Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR 2) and Revised AMSTAR (R-AMSTAR) instruments. Temporal trends were analysed using Bayesian multilevel regression. The protocol was preregistered on the Open Science Framework (doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/U38Z4). We identified 64 reviews (16 of which included a meta-analysis), all of which were rated as ‘critically low’ quality using the AMSTAR 2 criteria. Methodological shortcomings included absent protocol registration, inadequate risk of bias assessment, and failure to assess publication bias. Mean R-AMSTAR adherence was 43.8% (range 11–66%) and increased by 1.08% per year (population-level average marginal effect from the multilevel logistic model (95% CI [0.59, 1.58]), indicating robust methodological improvement over time. Currently, many systematic reviews and meta-analyses in behaviour analysis do not yet meet contemporary standards of methodological rigour. Enhancing the quality, transparency, and consistency of evidence synthesis is vital if systematic reviews are to meaningfully inform practice.
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Unraveling physical performance over time in hospitalized older patients with walking limitation : the role of ultrasound-derived vastus lateralis muscle thickness
(2026-06-25) Phillip, Jeppe Grabov; Oddsson, Hjalti Rúnar; Ryg, Jesper; Suetta, Charlotte; Masud, Tahir; Minet, Lisbeth Rosenbek
Acute hospitalization is a critical stressor that often leads to functional decline in older patients, highlighting the need for simple markers to identify at-risk individuals. Ultrasound is a feasible bedside tool for muscle mass assessment and has been proposed as a marker of physical function, but its prognostic value remains unclear. This study aimed to explore the association between ultrasound-derived muscle thickness (US-MT) and physical performance over time—gait speed (GS) and 30-s sit-to-stand (30s STS)—and selected clinical outcomes. In this prospective cohort study conducted in a geriatric department, adults aged ≥ 65 years with admission-related walking limitations were assessed at admission, discharge, 1 month, and 3 months. US-MT of the vastus lateralis was assessed at admission using ultrasonography. Longitudinal associations between US-MT and GS and 30s STS were examined using mixed-effects models. Associations with length of hospital stay (LOS), 3-month falls incidence, and 3-month mortality were examined using regression models. Among 243 participants, GS and 30s STS increased from admission to follow-up. Greater admission US-MT was modestly associated with faster GS in women (0.037 m/s; 95% CI 0.022–0.051) and with better 30s STS performance across sexes (IRR 1.24; 95% CI 1.00–1.53) across all time points. US-MT was not associated with trajectories of physical performance or with LOS, falls, or mortality. These findings suggest that admission US-MT may provide complementary bedside information on physical performance level, rather than serving as a standalone marker of recovery or clinical prognosis. ClinicalTrials.gov:
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The I of the Storm : Entrepreneurial Action as Practical Reason
(2026-06-15) Dimov, Dimo; Garmann Johnsen, Christian; Department of Business and Economics
In blurring the distinction between third- and first-person perspectives of entrepreneurial action, current theories fail to differentiate the knowledge domains of scholars and entrepreneurs. We develop a shift in theorizing entrepreneurial action, focusing on a self engaged in practical reasoning. In our framework, entrepreneurial action is what makes one an entrepreneur—there is no entrepreneur prior to it. We elucidate entrepreneurial action as implicating a complex intention, with the entrepreneurial self as the cause of action. Entrepreneurship thus entails time-extended, social agency: entrepreneurs act both in the present and for the future. By regaining the first-person footing of entrepreneurial action theory, we open new avenues for theoretical development.
Verk
When Disaster Hits, Governance Splits : Different Effects on Domestic and Inbound Tourism
(2026-06-09) Er, Selahattin Tolga; Demir, Ender; Department of Business and Economics
While natural disasters have the potential to disrupt tourism demand, evidence on their impacts is mixed. This study positions governance quality as a central factor in explaining these divergent outcomes, examining its moderating role in the relationship between natural disasters and inbound and domestic tourism. Using panel data from OECD countries, we show that governance quality reduces, and in many cases reverses, the negative effects of disasters on inbound tourism, with effects persisting into the following year. In contrast, domestic tourism increases upon disasters in countries with low-governance quality. This moderating effect for domestic tourism is evident only for geological disasters, suggesting that governance matters for sudden-onset events. Overall, our results indicate that governance quality reshapes the tourism-disaster relationship, sustaining inbound tourism when strong and resulting in increased domestic travel when weak, underlining the differential effects of governance quality across inbound and domestic tourism.

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