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Preliminary impact of the adoption of the Icelandic Prevention Model in Tarragona City, 2015–2019 : A repeated cross-sectional study
(2023) Meyers, Caine C.A.; Mann, Michael J.; Thorisdottir, Ingibjorg Eva; Ros Garcia, Patricia; Sigfusson, Jon; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Kristjansson, Alfgeir L.; Department of Psychology
Background: There is a great need for effective primary prevention intervention strategies to reduce and delay onset of adolescent substance use. The Icelandic Prevention Model (IPM) showed great success in Iceland over the past twenty plus years, however, evidence for the transferability of model is still somewhat limited. Using data collected in Tarragona during regional efforts to begin adoption of the IPM in Catalonia, this study tested the transferability and stability of the core risk and protective factor assumptions of the IPM overtime and examined trends of lifetime smoking, e-cigarette-use, alcohol-use, intoxication, and cannabis-use within the same time period. Methods: This study includes responses from 15- to 16-years-olds from two region-wide samples taken in 2015 and 2019 in Tarragona (N = 2,867). Survey questions assessed frequency of lifetime: smoking, e-cigarette-use, alcohol-use, intoxication, and cannabis-use, and the core model assumptions. Demographic data were also collected. Logistic regression models of main effects with and without time interaction were used to test assumptions and their stability across time. Chi-square tests and Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney U tests were used to compare prevalence of substance use and mean scores of primary prevention variables respectively. Results: Lifetime: smoking (−7%, p < 0.001) and cannabis-use (−4%, p < 0.001) decreased, and e-cigarette-use increased (+33%, p < 0.001) in Tarragona. Lifetime intoxication (−7%, p < 0.001) decreased in a single zone exclusively. Most core model assumptions held in their hypothesised direction across time. The strongest positive association was observed between time spent with parents during weekends and reduced odds of lifetime smoking (OR: 0.62, 95%CI: 0.57–0.67) and the strongest negative association was observed between being outside after midnight and increased odds of lifetime intoxication (OR: 1.41, 95%CI: 1.32–1.51). Mean scores of primary prevention variables also changed disproportionately in Tarragona. Conclusion: This study confirms that the core IPM assumptions are similar in Tarragona as in Iceland and other contexts previously examined. They also indicate that prevalence of lifetime smoking, intoxication, and cannabis-use decreased disproportionately in Tarragona between 2015 and 2019 during the first phase of regional adoption of the model. Thus, targeting model assumptions represents a viable primary prevention strategy for communities that hope to reduce smoking, alcohol-use, intoxication, and cannabis-use among adolescents.
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Monitoring microseismicity of the Hengill Geothermal Field in Iceland
(2022-12) Grigoli, Francesco; Clinton, John F.; Diehl, Tobias; Kaestli, Philipp; Scarabello, Luca; Agustsdottir, Thorbjorg; Kristjansdottir, Sigridur; Magnusson, Rognvaldur; Bean, Christopher J.; Broccardo, Marco; Cesca, Simone; Dahm, Torsten; Hjorleifsdottir, Vala; Cabrera, Banu Mena; Milkereit, Claus; Nooshiri, Nima; Obermann, Anne; Racine, Roman; Rinaldi, Antonio Pio; Ritz, Vanille; Sanchez-Pastor, Pilar; Wiemer, Stefan; Department of Engineering
Induced seismicity is one of the main factors that reduces societal acceptance of deep geothermal energy exploitation activities, and felt earthquakes are the main reason for closure of geothermal projects. Implementing innovative tools for real-time monitoring and forecasting of induced seismicity was one of the aims of the recently completed COSEISMIQ project. Within this project, a temporary seismic network was deployed in the Hengill geothermal region in Iceland, the location of the nation’s two largest geothermal power plants. In this paper, we release raw continuous seismic waveforms and seismicity catalogues collected and prepared during this project. This dataset is particularly valuable since a very dense network was deployed in a seismically active region where thousand of earthquakes occur every year. For this reason, the collected dataset can be used across a broad range of research topics in seismology ranging from the development and testing of new data analysis methods to induced seismicity and seismotectonics studies.
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Association between adverse childhood experiences and premenstrual disorders : a cross-sectional analysis of 11,973 women
(2022-12) Yang, Qian; Þórðardóttir, Edda Björk; Hauksdóttir, Arna; Aspelund, Thor; Jakobsdóttir, Jóhanna; Halldorsdottir, Thorhildur; Tomasson, Gunnar; Rúnarsdóttir, Harpa; Danielsdottir, Hilda Björk; Bertone-Johnson, Elizabeth R.; Sjölander, Arvid; Fang, Fang; Lu, Donghao; Valdimarsdóttir, Unnur Anna; Department of Psychology
Background: Childhood abuse and neglect have been associated with premenstrual disorders (PMDs), including premenstrual syndrome (PMS) and premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD). However, the associations of other adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and the cumulative number of ACEs with PMDs remain to be explored. Methods: To evaluate the associations of the cumulative number and types of ACEs with PMDs, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis with a subsample of menstruating women within the Stress-And-Gene-Analysis (SAGA) cohort, assessed for PMDs and ACEs (N=11,973). The cumulative and individual exposure of 13 types of ACEs was evaluated by a modified ACE-International Questionnaire. A modified version of the Premenstrual Symptom Screening Tool was used to identify probable cases of PMDs, further sub-grouped into PMS and PMDD. Prevalence ratios (PRs) of PMDs in relation to varying ACEs were estimated using Poisson regression. Results: At a mean age of 34.0 years (standard deviation (SD) 9.1), 3235 (27%) met the criteria of probable PMDs, including 2501 (21%) for PMS and 734 (6%) for PMDD. The number of ACEs was linearly associated with PMDs (fully-adjusted PR 1.12 per ACE, 95% CI 1.11–1.13). Specifically, the PR for PMDs was 2.46 (95% CI 2.21–2.74) for women with 4 or more ACEs compared with women with no ACEs. A stronger association was observed for probable PMDD compared to PMS (p for difference <0.001). The associations between ACEs and PMDs were stronger among women without PTSD, anxiety, or depression, and without childhood deprivation and were stronger among women a lower level of social support (p for interaction<0.001). All types of ACEs were positively associated with PMDs (PRs ranged from 1.11 to 1.51); the associations of sexual abuse, emotional neglect, family violence, mental illness of a household member, and peer and collective violence were independent of other ACEs. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that childhood adverse experiences are associated with PMDs in a dose-dependent manner. If confirmed by prospective data, our findings support the importance of early intervention for girls exposed to ACEs to minimize risks of PMDs and other morbidities in adulthood.
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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
(2022-07-16) GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators; Department of Psychology
Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Verk
The maturity premium
(2022-05) Chaderina, Maria; Weiss, Patrick; Zechner, Josef; Department of Business and Economics
We show that firms with longer debt maturities earn risk premia not explained by unconditional factors. Embedding dynamic capital structure choices in an asset-pricing framework where the market price of risk evolves with the business cycle, we find that firms with long-term debt exhibit more countercyclical leverage. The induced covariance between betas and the market price of risk generates a maturity premium similar in size to our empirical estimate of 0.21% per month. We also provide direct evidence for the model mechanism and confirm that the maturity premium is consistent with observed leverage dynamics of long- and short-maturity firms.

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