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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(2018-11-10) GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators; Department of Psychology
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Verk
Perceptions of psychological momentum of elite soccer players
(2018-11-02) Redwood-Brown, Athalie J.; Sunderland, Caroline A.; Minniti, Antoinette M.; O’Donoghue, Peter G.; Department of Sport Science
The purpose of this research was to investigate elite soccer players’ perceptions and experiences of psychological momentum (PM) using a mixed methodological approach. Specifically, by comparing responses, the study aimed to provide coaches with a more appropriate method for collecting PM data. Interviews and focus groups were conducted with 10 English Academy, elite male soccer players. In addition, 75 professional male soccer players completed a 49-item measure about their experiences of PM. Interviews and focus groups were manually analysed using a combination of inductive and deductive approaches with Chi-square tests used to assess differences between responses to the PM measure. The majority of questionnaire responses were supported by themes highlighted by players interviewed. Scoring and conceding goals were the most frequently reported match variables associated with positive and negative PM, respectively. In addition, “feeling confident”, “having a positive attitude” and “being cohesive as a team” were important aspects of positive PM. A “perceived lack of ability” and “feeling anxious” were the most frequently reported experiences of negative PM. The similarity of results from both methods support the measure as a useful tool for coaches to collect data pertaining to players’ experiences and perceptions of PM. Overall, findings suggest that PM is a complex (dynamic) process whereby triggers, characteristics, and consequences can hardly be separated. By understanding players’ experiences and perceptions of PM, coaches may incorporate specific training methods to help players maximise positive PM, reduce negative PM as well as develop strategies to optimise PM.
Verk
Axiomatic Design of Equipment for Analysis of SMA Spring Degradation during Electronic Actuation
(2017) Pétursson, Einar; Karlsson, Ingi Níels; Gararsson, Olaf Garar; Pálsson, Páll; Genutis, Saulius; Omelianov, Vladimir; Foley, Joseph Timothy; Department of Engineering
The Shape Memory Alloy, Nickel-Titanium i.e. Nitinol is greatly lacking in published research about its properties. Both degradation through electronic actuation and degradation through heat actuation are lacking, as well comparison of them. This means that both inventors and manufacturers are missing important information, limiting their ability to reliably apply the material in the soft robotic field, automotive design, consumer electronics, or aerospace. Accurate and reliable testing equipment is essential to gather needed data about the material for further development. This paper presents a static test bench for SMA springs that is designed according to Axiomatic Design Theory. The tester is designed to actuate and measure six springs at a time to increase the rate at which testing data is gathered. The measurements collected are the force, current, and temperature of each spring along with the ambient temperature. The test bench was successfully designed and built. An initial test run lasted for two days for approximately 6700 cycles; no springs experienced a complete failure.
Verk
Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
(2016-10-08) Kassebaum, N. J.; Barber, R. M.; Dandona, L.; Hay, S. I.; Larson, H. J.; Lim, S. S.; Lopez, A. D.; Mokdad, A. H.; Naghavi, M.; Pinho, C.; Steiner, C.; Vos, T.; Wang, H.; Achoki, T.; Anderson, G. M.; Arora, M.; Biryukov, S.; Blore, J. D.; Carter, A.; Casey, D. C.; Coates, M. M.; Coggeshall, M.; Dicker, D. J.; Dossou, E.; Fleming, T.; Fraser, M. S.; Friedman, J.; Fullman, N.; Graetz, N.; Hancock, J.; Huynh, C.; Iannarone, M.; Kemmer, L.; Kulikoff, X. R.; Kutz, M. J.; Liu, P. Y.; Marquez, N.; Misganaw, A.; Mooney, M. D.; Moradi-Lakeh, M.; Ng, M.; Nguyen, G.; Pain, A.; Shackelford, K. A.; Silpakit, N.; Sligar, A.; Smith, J. M.; Sorensen, R. J.D.; Wang, L.; Sigfusdottir, I. D.; Department of Engineering; Department of Psychology
Background In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10–54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underlying causes of maternal death and four timing categories, improving estimation methods since GBD 2013 for adult all-cause mortality, HIV-related maternal mortality, and late maternal death. Secondary analyses then allowed systematic examination of drivers of trends, including the relation between maternal mortality and coverage of specific reproductive health-care services as well as assessment of observed versus expected maternal mortality as a function of Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Findings Only ten countries achieved MDG 5, but 122 of 195 countries have already met SDG 3.1. Geographical disparities widened between 1990 and 2015 and, in 2015, 24 countries still had a maternal mortality ratio greater than 400. The proportion of all maternal deaths occurring in the bottom two SDI quintiles, where haemorrhage is the dominant cause of maternal death, increased from roughly 68% in 1990 to more than 80% in 2015. The middle SDI quintile improved the most from 1990 to 2015, but also has the most complicated causal profile. Maternal mortality in the highest SDI quintile is mostly due to other direct maternal disorders, indirect maternal disorders, and abortion, ectopic pregnancy, and/or miscarriage. Historical patterns suggest achievement of SDG 3.1 will require 91% coverage of one antenatal care visit, 78% of four antenatal care visits, 81% of in-facility delivery, and 87% of skilled birth attendance. Interpretation Several challenges to improving reproductive health lie ahead in the SDG era. Countries should establish or renew systems for collection and timely dissemination of health data; expand coverage and improve quality of family planning services, including access to contraception and safe abortion to address high adolescent fertility; invest in improving health system capacity, including coverage of routine reproductive health care and of more advanced obstetric care—including EmOC; adapt health systems and data collection systems to monitor and reverse the increase in indirect, other direct, and late maternal deaths, especially in high SDI locations; and examine their own performance with respect to their SDI level, using that information to formulate strategies to improve performance and ensure optimum reproductive health of their population. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Verk
Erratum : Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (The Lancet HIV (2016) 3 (e361-e387) PII: S235230181630087X DOI: 10.1016/S2352-3018(16)30087-X)
(2016-09-01) GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators; Department of Psychology
GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet HIV 2016; 3: e361–87—In this Article, Kerrie E Doyle and David M Pereira have been added to the list of collaborators and Claudia C Pereira has been removed. These corrections have been made as of Aug 22, 2016.

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