When war moves oil : Energy dependence and global equity responses to the 2026 Iran conflict

Abstract

We provide, to the best of our knowledge, the first systematic cross-country analysis of global equity market reactions to the U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran on February 28, 2026, using daily returns from 67 countries. Stock prices declined materially, signaling a repricing of geopolitical risk. Cross-country heterogeneity reflects energy exposure: fuel exporters experienced smaller losses, while importers suffered larger declines. Nuclear capacity was associated with smaller losses, consistent with diversification benefits. Standard macroeconomic and geopolitical variables have limited explanatory power. Overall, the results suggest that energy markets are a central transmission channel for geopolitical shocks and point to the role of energy independence in financial resilience.