A review of the criteria that influence choices concerning the location of onshore wind energy projects in Iceland

Abstract

WIND ENERGY – BACKGROUND Over the course of the 20th Century, the global use of onshore and offshore wind energy has continued to expand, especially in response to environmental, availability and price concerns about electricity generation derived from fossil fuel combustion (Kiunke et al., 2022; Msigwa et al., 2022). Today, wind energy constitutes the fastest growing technology in the renewable power industry, with almost 1,870 TWh produced in 2021, up 17% on 2020 generation (IEA, 2022). Total installed capacity from onshore and offshore sources in 2020 was 837 MW, more than half of which is sourced from China (GWEC, 2022). Approximately 6.7% of global electricity production was from wind energy in 2021 (BP, 2022). In the light of various nations’ net zero greenhouse gas emissions commitments, the GWEC (2022) project rapid further expansion, anticipating an additional 557 GW of combined offshore and onshore capacity by the end of 2026. Despite the various uses of wind power, its growing significance as a share of global electricity production, and environmental advantages in comparison to fossil fuel powered alternatives, the negative consequences of wind turbine installations and wind farms have often been to the fore in the public and planning discourse about the merits of the technology (Brannstrom et al., 2022; Graham et al., 2009; Langer et al., 2018). Hastik et al. (2015) provided a comprehensive analysis of the environmental and ecosystem service impacts of several renewable energy technologies. In the case of impacts located close to the site of onshore wind farms, the most often cited issues are negative effects on birds and bats (Husby and Pearson, 2022; Lintott et al., 2016; Wang et al., 2015), altered landscape aesthetics (Vlami et al., 2016), shadow flickering and safety risks (Karanikas et al., 2021), and health impacts from noise (Nazir et al., 2020). Offsite issues, such as the construction of access roads and power line infrastructure, often constitute additional concerns (Hastik et al., 2015). Connected to these various issues, several studies have also focused on the themes of social acceptance and how best to cultivate a social license to operate (Colvin et al., 2019; Frate et al., 2019; Walker and Baxter, 2019). GIS MAPPING FOR LOCATING RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS The various environmental, social, and economic implications of renewable energy projects frequently demand advanced decision support platforms to determine the optimality of proposals. In recent years, an increasing number of studies have utilised Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping in tandem with MCDA to enrich the data pool available to decision-makers. The aim of GIS mapping is to store, retrieve, manipulate, analyse, and map geographical data (Church, 2002). The recent study by Cook and Pétursson (2023) appraised the increasingly significant role of GIS-based analysis, specifically connected to its use within MCDA. Although focused only on geothermal power, hydropower, and onshore wind energy, the study nevertheless revealed the breadth of focus of GIS-MCDA in the academic literature, particularly in relation to issues such as economic prospectivity, land-use trade-offs, visual impacts of erected infrastructure, and the social acceptability of proposals. A total of 41 articles were analysed, based on the most relevant publications in the period January 2017 to May 2023. These were split as follows: n = 13 for geothermal power, n = 9 for hydropower, and n = 19 for wind power. As per the detailed Appendix C in the Cook and Pétursson (2023) study, the criteria evaluated in the GIS-MCDA literature on onshore wind energy projects includes the following: • Environmental impacts (e.g., visual, noise, birds, bats, shadow flicker, soil texture, presence of geological formations, etc.). • Location specifics (e.g., predicted productive capacity; relief and topography; other land uses; and distance to electricity sub-stations, powerlines, telecommunications, roads, tourist sights, cities, towns, railways, etc.). • Land use and legal restrictions (e.g., protected areas, airports, military zones, forests, sand dunes, farms, vegetated areas, wetlands and rivers, urban locations, etc.). • Socio-demographics (e.g., population density) and social acceptability of proposals. ONSHORE WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ICELAND Onshore wind energy is a relatively new technology in Iceland, currently comprising a few off-grid turbines and contributing a token 0.03% of national electricity generation (NEA, 2023). However, given the strong productive potential of onshore wind power (Archer and Jacobson, 2005; Nawri et al., 2014) there are plans for expansion (Sæþórsdóttir et al., 2021). A 120 MW wind farm at Búrfellslundur in South Iceland, where two 0.9 MW test turbines have operated for a decade, will be the first major wind power project in Iceland, commencing operations within the next few years. Another project of ca. 100 MW at Blöndulundur in North Iceland is also planned and classed in the utilisation category by Iceland’s Master Plan for Nature Protection and Energy Utilization (ramma.is, n.d.). In early 2025, 39 wind energy projects had been submitted for assessment in the Master Plan, a clear indication of the interest in wind energy development in the country. AIMS AND STRUCTURE This report has the following aims: 1) To consider how the various GIS-MCDA criteria for onshore wind energy projects, as identified by Cook and Pétursson (2023), could apply to the Icelandic context. 2) To evaluate the extent to which GIS-based analysis is already utilised in Iceland and what additional aspects could be considered, providing potentially useful information to aid Iceland’s Master Plan for Nature Protection and Energy Utilization, and its Steering Committee and four Expert Groups. Section 2 of this report provides a summary overview on how MCDA studies are typically structured and operate in a renewable energy project context. Sections 3 to 5 of this report consider the GIS-MCDA evaluative criteria identified in Cook and Pétursson (2023) with respect to onshore wind energy projects, outlining how these are likely to apply to the Icelandic case. Much of this content constitutes a synthesis of other work recently published in support of the Master Ploan’s evidence base. Section 6 then provides a discussion, first reflecting on the extent to which such GIS-MCDA based evaluations are already undertaken in Iceland and then considering the main practical and policy-making implications of this study. Section 7 provides a short conclusion regarding the main findings.