Success Conditions for Sustainable Geothermal Power Development in East Africa : Lessons Learned

Abstract

Geothermal energy is a crucial component of climate adaptation and sustainability transitions, as it provides a dependable, low-carbon source of baseload power that can accelerate sustainable energy transitions and enhance climate resilience. Yet, in East Africa—one of the world’s most promising geothermal regions, with the East African Rift—a unique climate-energy opportunity zone—the harnessing of geothermal power remains slow and uneven. This study examines the contextual conditions that facilitate the successful and sustainable development of geothermal power in the region. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with 17 experienced professionals who have worked extensively on geothermal projects across East Africa, the analysis identifies how technical, institutional, managerial, and relational circumstances interact to shape outcomes. The findings indicate an interdependent configuration of success conditions, with structural, institutional, managerial, and meta-conditions jointly influencing project trajectories rather than operating in isolation. The most frequently emphasised enablers were resource confirmation and technical design, leadership and team competence, long-term stakeholder commitment, professional project management and control, and collaboration across institutions and communities. A co-occurrence analysis reinforces these insights by showing strong patterns of overlap between core domains—particularly between structural and managerial factors and between managerial and meta-conditions, highlighting the mediating role of managerial capability in translating contextual conditions into operational performance. Together, these interrelated circumstances form a system in which structural and institutional foundations create the enabling context, managerial capabilities operationalise this context under uncertainty, and meta-conditions sustain cooperation, learning, and adaptation over time. The study contributes to sustainability research by providing a context-sensitive interpretation of how project success conditions manifest in geothermal development under climate transition pressures, and it offers practical guidance for policymakers and partners working to advance SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure), and SDG 13 (Climate Action) in Africa.