Zoning for Zero - Climate impacts of zoning plans in a Nordic context

Abstract

This thesis examines the climate impacts of urban planning, with a focus on its primary institutional outcome: zoning plans. Methodologically, it contributes by analysing planning paradigms, typically addressed qualitatively in normative terms, through quantitative methods based on high-resolution spatial data of the built environment classified by their zoning plan denotations. Using this mixed-method approach grounded in Critical Realism, the thesis provides quantitative evidence on how land-use zoning influences the carbon footprint of urban development, with a qualitative analysis of the mechanisms behind this evidence. The quantitative results from the Nordic case cities challenge prevailing assumptions from two directions. On the one hand, high-density, efficiency-oriented zoning seems to fail to enable argued low-carbon lifestyles, instead reinforcing high-carbon behaviours through consumerism and increased travel. On the other hand, lower-density zoning, widely deemed unsustainable, tends to dominate also in cities in locations where residents have lower carbon intensities and overall emissions, even when income and household types are controlled. The findings reveal zoning’s causal power to shape global emissions from the bottom up, although it is currently applied counterproductively. The thesis demonstrates and argues that using zoning plans to manage climate impacts, rather than building rights with per capita–based efficiency metrics, is not only a feasible and historically defensible reconception of zoning but also essential for urban planning to retain its public mandate as a libertarian paternalistic policy tool for climate-friendly development.