Decarbonising Road Freight Transport in Iceland : A Feasibility Assessment Under Harsh Climate Conditions in Remote Regions

Abstract

Background: The decarbonisation of road freight transport is a multifaceted challenge, which involves technical, economic, social, and infrastructural considerations. Heavy-Duty Vehicles (HDVs), responsible for 40% of the emission in the transport sector, operate across diverse and demanding applications and are heavily reliant on fossil diesel, making their decarbonisation complex. While existing literature has largely focused on addressing a specific aspect of the HDV transition, such as greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) analysis, technical assessments of a limited range of powertrains and configurations, or isolated evaluations of infrastructure requirements, these studies often overlook the well-to-wheel nature of the decarbonisation challenge. In Iceland, the complexity of this challenge is further expanded by the harsh climate conditions, sparse population, and ageing infrastructure. While Iceland’s abundant renewable energy presents an opportunity to transition away from fossil fuels in the freight sector, the transition demands a comprehensive understanding of the technical feasibility and infrastructure requirements. Aim: This thesis begins with a comprehensive evaluation of alternative fuel powertrains to identify the most favourable solution to decarbonise road freight transport in Iceland. Based on this initial assessment, the thesis focuses on Battery-Electric Trucks (BETs) as the most promising solution to achieve the decarbonisation goals, conducting a detailed assessment of the feasibility and implications of HDV electrification in Iceland. This research addresses the unique challenges posed by Iceland’s Arctic-like climate and remoteness, seeking to bridge the existing gaps by integrating multiple dimensions of the transition using real-life data, including detailed vehicle energy performance assessments under adverse conditions, optimal charging network design, and impact of charging loads on the power grid. Overall, the main goal of this thesis is to answer the question “Are BETs a feasible option to decarbonise the road freight transport sector in Iceland?”. Method: To achieve our goal, this thesis first evaluates the technical, environmental, and economic feasibility of multiple powertrain options in Iceland, including BET, hydrogen fuel cell (FCV), and other alternative fuels. This analysis is carried out using AFLEET and GREET databases to assess the HDV life cycle emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO), as well as considering factors like energy security and local fuel production capacity. Subsequent studies focus specifically on battery-electric powertrains, assessing their performance using detailed vehicle energy consumption models (FASTSim) to account for adverse climate and freight conditions. Additionally, a novel methodology for planning fast-charging infrastructure is proposed, which incorporates a non-linear charging optimisation framework to determine the magnitude of charging loads from battery-electric trucks and locate power demand points from fast-charging stations along Iceland’s main freight routes. Finally, PyPSA is used to conduct power flow simulations to evaluate the effects of charging loads from battery-electric trucks on the national grid and identify potential bottlenecks in the infrastructure. This integrative methodology provides a comprehensive understanding of the technical feasibility, infrastructure requirements, and systemic impacts of freight transport electrification. Results: The findings indicate that battery-electric trucks offer significant environmental and economic advantages, despite the limitations of current battery technology. Hydrogen and compressed natural gas are promising alternatives for regional trucks but are constrained by high life cycle costs and insufficient feedstock availability. The battery-electric truck performance analysis reveals a range reduction of 41–47% under challenging conditions, emphasising the necessity of on-route charging for full fleet electrification. The proposed charging infrastructure planning methodology highlights that larger batteries and higher charging rates can minimise routing delays, while power flow simulations indicate that the additional charging loads can cause localised grid bottlenecks, particularly in remote regions like the Westfjords. Conclusion: Overall, the outcomes of this thesis emphasise the feasibility of electrifying road freight transport in Iceland, although strategic planning will be required to mitigate grid constraints, especially in the Westfjords and other vulnerable areas. By integrating technical, economic, and environmental assessments, this thesis provides a holistic framework for guiding road freight electrification in Iceland and similar regions. The findings contribute to advancing sustainable freight transport while offering a scalable approach for other similar challenging contexts globally.