Jón Torfi Jónasson hefur á ferli sínum dregið fram hið lítt öfundsverða hlutskipti íslenskra framhaldskólanema sem birtist í miklu brotthvarfi þeirra frá námi. Í þessari rannsókn er sjónum beint að framhaldsskólasókn, þar sem kannaðar eru líkur á því að nemendur hefji nám að loknum grunnskóla og er þeim svo fylgt til 22 ára aldurs. Markmiðið er að bera saman framhaldsskólasókn fjögurra árganga (1985–88) sem luku grunnskóla við upphaf 21. aldar og fjögurra árganga (1995–98) sem luku grunnskóla tíu árum síðar. Könnuð er framhaldsskólasókn eftir uppruna nemenda, þ.e. hvort þeir hafa innlendan eða alþjóðlegan bakgrunn og eftir kyni. Byggt er á gögnum frá Hagstofu Íslands úr gagnagrunnum um mannfjölda, prófaskrá og nemendaskrá. Svipmót íslensks samfélags hefur tekið miklum breytingum á þessum tíma og er nú mun alþjóðlegra en það var við upphaf aldarinnar. Innflytjendum og ungmennum með alþjóðlegan bakgrunn hefur þannig fjölgað í íslenskum skólum og er verulegur munur milli hópanna sem hér eru til skoðunar. Af þessum ástæðum er mikilvægt og gagnlegt að fylgjast með þróun skólasóknar hjá þessum hópi ungmenna. Þegar litið er til alls hópsins hefur dregið talsvert úr brotthvarfi frá námi milli eldri og yngri fæðingarárganganna. Fleiri ungmenni í yngri fæðingarárgöngunum en þeim eldri hefja þannig nám í framhaldsskóla og fleiri ljúka því fyrir 22 ára aldur. Þetta á bæði við um íslenska nemendur og ungmenni með alþjóðlegan bakgrunn. Líkur á því að þau sem fædd eru erlendis hefji nám í framhaldsskóla aukast á milli fæðingarárganganna og hlutfallslega fleiri ljúka nú framhaldsskólanámi en áður var. Áfram er hlutfall nema með alþjóðlegan bakgrunn sem ekki ljúka námi fyrir 22 ára aldur hátt. Í báðum hópunum hafa þannig meira en helmingur karla í hópi innflytjenda horfið frá námi fyrir 22 ára aldur. Brotthvarf karla frá námi er áberandi meira en meðal kvenna hvort sem litið er til fólks með innlendan eða alþjóðlegan bakgrunn.
Reducing early school leaving has been one of the main priorities of European states in the field of education in recent years. The proportion of early school leavers has been higher in Iceland than among its Nordic neighbours and only a few European countries have higher drop-out rates than Iceland. Icelandic education authorities defined two principal goals in 2014, in which one was for 60% of upper secondary students to graduate on time by the year 2018. At the time, 44% reached this level. This study investigates upper secondary school attendance in two cohorts, one born between 1985–88, the other ten years later (1995–98). Our dataset includes all individuals in those cohorts who lived in Iceland the year they completed elementary school, i.e., the year they turned 16. The focus is on gender and ethnic background. When the first cohort started school, important changes in international migration patterns in Iceland were taking place. Iceland became part of the European Economic Area in the early 1990s which eventually changed the profile of the immigrant population. Until the late 1990s, however, immigrants were few in Iceland, but this changed with the economic boom in the first decade of a new century accompanied by a growing demand for workers, in particular in the construction sector. The economic recession, starting in 2008, had only little and temporary negative impact on the proportion of immigrant population in Iceland and in 2021 15.5% of Iceland’s population were immigrants as compared to 3.6% in 2001. The relatively recent transformation of Icelandic society into an immigrant country can be seen when looking at the age structure of the immigrant population. Currently, almost one out of three inhabitants in their late 20s and early 30s are immigrants, whereas immigrants only account for 6.9% of the population in the age group 15–19 years (compared to 1.7 % in 2001). As for second generation immigrants, the share is even lower. In the study we also focus on other groups with international backgrounds, i.e., students of mixed background but also students with an Icelandic background who were born abroad (both parents born in Iceland). In line with recent studies on school attendance, our study shows that overall, school enrolment rates increase between our two cohorts. This is the case with all ethnic groups in the study and for both genders. However, drop-out rates among males are considerably higher than among females. In the first cohort, the group born abroad with an Icelandic background stands out with the highest school attendance rates and lowest share of early school leavers in all groups. In the second cohort this difference is reduced as school enrolment has increased in the Icelandic born group. Still, however, the share of early school leavers is higher in this group than among its Icelandic peers born abroad. In both cohorts, dropout among immigrants and other students with an international background is higher than among those with an Icelandic background. In the case of students with an international background who are born in Iceland, the difference is, however, largely reduced between the two cohorts and in this group school attendance is close to school attendance of students with Icelandic background. In the case of immigrants, the age at arrival in Iceland strongly affects the dropout rates. Thus, those immigrants who lived in Iceland already at the age of six were equally likely to complete upper secondary school as their Icelandic peers. Overall, dropout rates among immigrants were high in both cohorts, especially as regards males. More than 50% of all immigrant males in both cohorts thus belonged to the group of early school leavers (58.2% in the first cohort and 52.8% in the second cohort). Our study strongly indicates that there is need for more research into the situation of youths with a foreign background in Icelandic schools.
