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Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980–2019 : a network meta-regression

Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980–2019 : a network meta-regression


Title: Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980–2019 : a network meta-regression
Author: GBD 2019 Police Violence US Subnational Collaborators
Sigfúsdóttir, Inga Dóra
Date: 2021-10-02
Language: English
Scope: 17
Department: Department of Psychology
Series: The Lancet; 398(10307)
ISSN: 0140-6736
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01609-3
Subject: Lögreglan; Ofbeldi; Morð; Dánartíðni; Aldurshópar; Kynstofnar; Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Cause of Death; Child; Child, Preschool; Databases; Factual; Female; Homicide; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Police; United States; Violence; Young Adult; Race; Medicine (all)
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/3379

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Citation:

GBD 2019 Police Violence US Subnational Collaborators & Sigfúsdóttir , I D 2021 , ' Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980–2019 : a network meta-regression ' , The Lancet , vol. 398 , no. 10307 , pp. 1239-1255 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01609-3

Abstract:

Background: The burden of fatal police violence is an urgent public health crisis in the USA. Mounting evidence shows that deaths at the hands of the police disproportionately impact people of certain races and ethnicities, pointing to systemic racism in policing. Recent high-profile killings by police in the USA have prompted calls for more extensive and public data reporting on police violence. This study examines the presence and extent of under-reporting of police violence in US Government-run vital registration data, offers a method for correcting under-reporting in these datasets, and presents revised estimates of deaths due to police violence in the USA. Methods: We compared data from the USA National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) to three non-governmental, open-source databases on police violence: Fatal Encounters, Mapping Police Violence, and The Counted. We extracted and standardised the age, sex, US state of death registration, year of death, and race and ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic of other races, and Hispanic of any race) of each decedent for all data sources and used a network meta-regression to quantify the rate of under-reporting within the NVSS. Using these rates to inform correction factors, we provide adjusted estimates of deaths due to police violence for all states, ages, sexes, and racial and ethnic groups from 1980 to 2019 across the USA. Findings: Across all races and states in the USA, we estimate 30 800 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 30 300–31 300) from police violence between 1980 and 2018; this represents 17 100 more deaths (16 600–17 600) than reported by the NVSS. Over this time period, the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence was highest in non-Hispanic Black people (0·69 [95% UI 0·67–0·71] per 100 000), followed by Hispanic people of any race (0·35 [0·34–0·36]), non-Hispanic White people (0·20 [0·19–0·20]), and non-Hispanic people of other races (0·15 [0·14– 0·16]). This variation is further affected by the decedent's sex and shows large discrepancies between states. Between 1980 and 2018, the NVSS did not report 55·5% (54·8–56·2) of all deaths attributable to police violence. When aggregating all races, the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence was 0·25 (0·24–0·26) per 100 000 in the 1980s and 0·34 (0·34–0·35) per 100 000 in the 2010s, an increase of 38·4% (32·4–45·1) over the period of study. Interpretation: We found that more than half of all deaths due to police violence that we estimated in the USA from 1980 to 2018 were unreported in the NVSS. Compounding this, we found substantial differences in the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence over time and by racial and ethnic groups within the USA. Proven public health intervention strategies are needed to address these systematic biases. State-level estimates allow for appropriate targeting of these strategies to address police violence and improve its reporting. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Description:

Funding Information: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number OPP1152504), National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (contract 75N94019C00016), and by pooled funds. Support for estimates in this paper was also provided by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (grant number 5R01HL136868-03). A Sheikh acknowledges support from Health Data Research UK. G A Roth acknowledges financial support from the National Institutes of Health National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01 HL136868-01A1, Impact of Interventions on Future Trends in Subnational Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in the US). E J Perez-Stable is supported by the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD) and A M N?poles is supported by the NIMHD Division of Intramural Research. A C Tsai is supported by the National Institutes of Health (U01MD014023) through payments made to their institution. The contents and views in this manuscript are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent the views of the National Institutes of Health. The authors would like to acknowledge the work of researchers on the open-sourced databases (Mapping Police Violence, The Counted, and Fatal Encounters) that made this analysis possible. We would also like to acknowledge the work of Justin Feldman and colleagues, which served as a key resource for this Article. Finally, we acknowledge the lives of the individuals who have been killed by the police; the true magnitude of this loss is incalculable. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

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