Connecting Energy System Modelling With Sustainable Energy System Narratives At a Global Scale

Abstract

This PhD thesis explores what can be considered a sustainable energy system on a global scale and what methods and tools can help sustainable energy policy design and assessment. Energy system modelling and sustainable energy system narratives are the two main areas of interest of this thesis. First current energy systems modelling practice was analyzed in the context of sustainable energy development, as well as how social science contributes to research focusing on sustainable energy. This revealed several main research gaps related to the topic of this thesis, including: (1) Most of existing energy system models have unrealistic or oversimplified assumptions that can negatively impact the quality of the models’ outputs and consequently the quality of decision-making informed by such models; (2) There is a limited instrumental value of the available theories related to sustainable energy system development; (3) Current practice lacks global energy system narratives that would contribute a holistic understanding of the purpose and long-term goals of the energy system. Global energy system narratives would also contribute to the principles of sustainable design of the energy system. The remainder of the thesis became an attempt to close these identified research gaps in order to answer the main research questions. System dynamics, steady-state economics and energy justice theory are the main methodological and conceptual components of the thesis’ research design. The contribution of the thesis includes: 1. A list of questions defining the current energy paradigm which can be used as a guidance for a sustainable energy system modelling; 2. A developed steady state of energy concept implying that energy sufficiency should be a universal energy system goal in the context of a long-term energy system sustainability; 3. A list of requirements for a socially sustainable energy provision based on energy justice principles. This list can be used as guideline for sustainable energy policy assessment and design; 4. A system dynamics model of electricity access provision in Sub-Saharan Africa. The model demonstrates an example of how energy system modelling: i) can be combined with sustainable energy system narratives for addressing methodological and disciplinary gaps in energy system research and ii) can contribute to better sustainable energy system policy design and assessment.