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Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic

Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic

Title: Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic
Author: Nilsson, Annika E.
Carson, Marcus
Cost, Douglas S.
Forbes, Bruce C.
Haavisto, Riina
Karlsdottir, Anna
Larsen, Joan Nymand
Paasche, Øyvind
Sarkki, Simo
Larsen, Sanne Vammen
... 1 more authors Show all authors
Date: 2019-08-09
Language: English
University/Institute: Háskólinn á Akureyri
University of Akureyri
School: Hug- og félagsvísindasvið (HA)
School of Humanities and Social Sciences (UA)
Department: Félagsvísindadeild (HA)
Faculty of Social Sciences (UA)
Series: Polar Geography;
ISSN: 1088-937X
1939-0513 (eISSN)
DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1648583
Subject: Geography; Arctic; Sustainable development; Landafræði; Heimskautasvæði; Sjálfbærni
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1354

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Nilsson, A. E., Carson, M., Cost, D. S., Forbes, B. C., Haavisto, R., Karlsdottir, A., . . . Pelyasov, A. (2019). Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic. Polar Geography. doi:10.1080/1088937X.2019.1648583


Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying possible future developments in the Arctic. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. These include attention to whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to diversification and the engagement of youth. Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed in participatory scenario exercises to include attention to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. Participatory scenarios can also be further improved through approaches that effectively combine qualitative and quantitative information. Finally, there is a need for systematic studies of how the results of scenario exercises influence decision-making processes. This article elaborates on ways in which attention to these aspects can help make scenarios more robust for assessing a diversity of potential Arctic futures in times of rapid environmental and social change.


© 2019 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.

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